Strategic Plan

Megatrends

Analysis

PESTEL Analysis

Political Increased nationalism Economic and cyber cold warfare Big(ger) state	Economic The 'gig economy' Emerging business models Shift in global economic power Increasing wealth and consumption, and reducing extreme poverty Organisations will churn and fragment Globalisation
Social Personal/Data Privacy The emerging middle classes of emerging markets Demographic change & ageing populations Urbanisation Generational waves From learning to doing Diversity Pandemic Risk Wellbeing Flexible/Remote/hybrid working Gender and race diversity and politics	Technological Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) / Generative AI (GenAI) Social Media Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT) The Internet of Things (IoT) The fourth Industrial Revolution Nanotechnology & Material Science Online Data driven life-hacking Big Data Bioengineering & Gene Editing Human-Machine integration Autonomous devices (cars and other) Augmented and Virtual Reality 3D Printing Robotics Quantum Computing Dependence on computer chips Growing 'space' sector
Environmental Climate change and resource depletion Clean energy Precision Fermentation	Legal Big Tech regulation Big Tech taxation Big Tech antitrust

Insight Details

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) / Generative AI (GenAI)

AI has brought automation from the factory floor into the office. It will eventually displace service workers, but perhaps not at the scale and speed some fear. Source: Four macroeconomic forces that are shaping the world - Investment - Pensions Expert published 06/11/2023

AI encompasses a variety of different methods, such as.

• Machine Learning: AI researcher Pedro Domingos explains that there are five basic approaches to machine learning, from neural nets that mimic the brain, to support vector machines that classify different types of information and graphical models that use a more statistical approach. (Source: Four Things Every Leader Should Know About Applying Artificial Intelligence To Business – Innovation Excellence published 01/11/2018)
• Generative AI (like ChatGPT, which took the world by storm in November 2022). Generative AI may be text-based, using Large Language Models (LLMs) or, for example, image-based. 
• Natural Language Processing (NLP). NLP, combined with Generative AI then allows for conversational user interfaces.

Considerations:

• Artificial intelligence will destroy some forms of work and create new forms of work. No-one knows for sure what the net effect on jobs will be. But the skills required to succeed in the future will be different. The invention of the wheel in about 5,000 BC meant that you needed fewer people to move a heavy stone block. Instead of making the rest redundant, they simply started moving more and larger stones. The same can be said for steam power, electricity, and computing power. And there is little reason to believe that the same will not be true of artificial intelligence, and whatever follows it. 
• AI skills are the fastest-growing category on Linkedin, increasing by 190% globally from 2015 to 2017.
• Simultaneously, what will matter most at work is what is left after AI and automation - humanity. The fastest-growing skills gaps relate to soft skills: oral communication, people management, time management and leadership.
• Around 14% of jobs currently done by humans are ‘highly vulnerable’ to automation, and another 32% will see significant changes to the way they are carried out, according to recent research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (Source: Beyond 100 - Whitepaper | Barclays Private Bank)
• Research by the IMF suggests that automation will affect women's jobs disproportionately. This is because they tend to be employed in more routine jobs.
• The ethical considerations become more complex as machines take on more complex roles. For example, in a situation where the death of either a passenger or a pedestrian is unavoidable, how should an autonomous vehicle choose?
• Google's DeepMind is now better than 99.8% of all human StarCraft II players. (Source: DeepMind’s StarCraft 2 AI is now better than 99.8 percent of all human players - The Verge published 30/10/2019) See also: The coolest thing I've seen all year (AI).

Impacts:

• “If we put generative AI together with the basket of automation technologies, we’re looking at a potential of $4.4 trillion of GDP growth globally. That is larger than the size of the United Kingdom.” —McKinsey senior partner Lareina Yee on the implications of global technology trends such as generative AI in Asia in a new episode of The Future of Asia Podcast.

• JP Morgan Chase:

  On April 4th Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s boss, said his bank had 600 machine-learning engineers and had put AI to work on more than 300 different internal applications. (Source: Our early-adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI)

• OpenAI:

  OpenAI's ChatGPT has stunned the world with that art of what is already possible in 2022.

• Eli Lilly:

  David Ricks, the boss of Eli Lilly, has said that the pharmaceutical giant has more than 100 projects on the go using ai. (Source: Our early-adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI)

   

Social Media

The invention of the iPhone in 2007 has, over the past decade, facilitated an explosion in the use of social media. (Source: 10 trends for the 2020s – mallowstreet)

Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT)

Blockchain: A blockchain is a decentralized and transparent digital ledger that records and stores information across a network of computers. It relies on cryptographic principles and consensus algorithms to ensure the security, immutability, and integrity of data, making it resistant to modification or tampering.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT): Distributed Ledger Technology is a broader term that encompasses various systems, including blockchain, that enable the recording, storage, and synchronization of data across multiple nodes or computers in a decentralized network. DLT provides a transparent and secure way to manage and verify transactions or digital assets without relying on a central authority.

Despite significant hype and many use cases put forward, scalability and cost pressures mean real-world applications remain elusive. (Source: No commercial use for blockchain, say banks - bobsguide.com published 09/10/2019)

Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise. Maersk and IBM last month shut down their global platform that was supposed to bring blockchain to the shipping industry. Other big bets are moving slowly. (Source: Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise - WSJ published 15/12/2022)

Personal/Data Privacy

People are becoming increasingly concerned with how their personal data is being used, exposed and/or misused.

According to one report, the first six months of 2019 have seen more than 3,800 publicly disclosed breaches exposing an incredible 4.1 billion compromised records. (Source: Data Breaches Expose 4.1 Billion Records In First Six Months Of 2019 published 20/08/2019)

Some high profile cases include:

• Experts have discovered an online server containing 419 million phone numbers linked to Facebook account holders. (Source: #privacy: Facebook data breach compromised hundreds of millions of phone numbers - PrivSec Report published 05/09/2019)

• The UK's Information Commissioner's Office wants to fine Marriott Hotels 99m over its loss of 383 million customer booking records last year. (Source: Marriott's got 99 million problems and the ICO's one: Starwood hack mega-fine looms over • The Register)

• The UK Information Commissioner's Office has warned British Airways it faces a whopping 183.39m fine following the theft of customer records from its website and mobile app servers. (Source: UK privacy watchdog threatens British Airways with 747-sized fine for massive personal data blurt • The Register)

The 'gig economy'

The 'gig economy' is where independent workers accept piece work, instead of holding regular jobs. It is most popularly characterised by businesses like Uber. But, it also includes a broader move towards self-employment and micro-businesses.

More recently, experts have started to conclude that the gig economy has had less impact on the economy than first imagined. (Source: How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong - WSJ)

The Internet of Things (IoT)

"As computers and connectivity become cheaper, it makes sense to bake them into more and more things that are not, in themselves, computers—from nappies and coffee machines to cows and factory robots—creating an 'internet of things', or IoT (see Technology Quarterly). It is a slow revolution that has been gathering pace for years, as computers have found their way into cars, telephones and televisions. But the transformation is about to go into overdrive. One forecast is that by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes." Source: Now the world will change as computers spread into everyday objects - Chips with everything published 12/09/2019

By 2020, there will be seven times as many connected devices on the planet as people. (Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation)

Emerging business models

There is a gradual shift from business models predicated on selling products to business models predicated on service subscriptions, shared ownership and rental:

• Netflix and Spotify allow members to pay a monthly fee for streaming access to their film and music libraries.
• The Dollar Shave Club allows members to pay a monthly fee to have razor blades sent to them on a regular basis. (Source: Subscription models of financial advice emerge - FTAdviser.com)
• Subscription models of financial advice are emerging in the US (Source: Subscription models of financial advice emerge - FTAdviser.com)
• See also: 7 Major Disadvantages of the Sharing Economy | CustomerThink published 27/12/2018

A platform is a business model that allows multiple participants (producers and consumers) to connect to it, interact with one another, and create and exchange value. The most successful companies in the digital era, including Alibaba, Amazon, and Facebook, were all designed on platform business models. (Source: Insurance beyond digital: The rise of ecosystems and platforms | McKinsey) Uber and AirBnb are other examples of well-known platform businesses.

An ecosystem, meanwhile, is an interconnected set of services that allows users to fulfil a variety of needs in one integrated experience.

• Consumer (B2C) ecosystems currently emerging around the world tend to concentrate on needs such as travel, healthcare, or housing.
• Business-to-business (B2B) ecosystems generally revolve around a certain decision maker—for example, marketing and sales, operations, procurement, or finance professionals.

(Source: Insurance beyond digital: The rise of ecosystems and platforms | McKinsey)

Personalisation and Mass Customisation

Since the second industrial revolution, commerce has been driven by economies of scale: standardising products and services and then flogging them to as many people as possible. (Think of the Model T Ford, available in any colour as long as it is black!)

But that is changing. Technology is allowing firms to deliver services personalised to individual customers and customised to increasingly small customer segments.

This is enabled by technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, 3D printing. AI allows firms to line about customers on an increasingly granular level, whilst 3D printing allows them to personalise products for those customers.

Examples:

• Shapeways profiles customers before sending them a selection of clothing. The customer buys what they want and returns the rest. The AI learns from these choices and then sends a better selection next time. (Source: Bigger Is No Longer Better When It Comes to Consumer Brands published 29/08/2018)

Climate change and resource depletion

• As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)
• ESG has become a dominant consideration for many industries. However, there is not pushback from the likes of BlackRock chairman Larry Fink that the term has become weaponised. (Source: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink drops use of term 'ESG' | Sustainable Investment)
• The most immediate impacts seem to be more extreme weather events with more noticeable impacts on business continuity and logistics.

The fourth Industrial Revolution

The first Industrial Revolution was powered by the invention of the steam engine. The second was powered by electricity and characterised by the development of the mass production assembly line and the division of labour. The third was powered by the development of the digital computer. The fourth is being powered by artificial intelligence.

The fourth Industrial Revolution is powered by a combination of:

• Artificial Intelligence and machine learning,
• the Internet of Things (IoT),
• additive manufacturing or 3D printing, and
• automation and robotics

BNY Mellon has described it as "the convergence of physical and digital that can create a digital feedback loop leading a specific outcome in the real world." (Source: The many faces of Industry 4.0)

The digital revolution has no boundaries or borders. It is changing behaviour and expectations as much as the tools used to deliver new services and experiences. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

Demographic change & ageing populations

• By 2030 the world’s population is projected to rise by more than 1 billion. Equally significantly, people are living longer and having fewer children. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)
• By 2020, the spending power of people aged 60 and over will reach an estimated $15trn. (Source: Are megatrends simply hype or a serious investment opportunity?)
• The millennial generation is growing and could soon be one of the largest in history. (Source: Are megatrends simply hype or a serious investment opportunity?)
• PwC estimates that the OECD could gain more than $3.5 trillion by raising the employment rates of older people to levels found in New Zealand and Iceland (where 56% of those over 65 work). Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation)

Experts are still contemplating the impact of COVID-19 on average life expectancies.

Shift in global economic power

Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

Urbanisation

• Today, more than half the world’s population live in urban areas and almost all of the new growth will take place in lesser known medium-sized cities of developing countries. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)
• 1800: 3%
• 1950: 29%
• 2008: 50%
• 2040: 65% (Source: Anatomy of a smart city)

• 1.5 million people are added to the global urban population every week. Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation

• Baby boomers are a particular demographic wave moving into cities to enjoy their amenities post-retirement. (Source: Baby boomers instigating city changes – mallowstreet)

• The increasing pressures of urbanisation are leading to increasing interest in 'smart cities' (Source: Anatomy of a smart city)

• As a counter-trend, worsening commutes and increasing real-estate prices mean that large employers will look for alternatives to concentration in large cities. This could include smaller regional offices, flexible working from home, or working from localised shared work-centres with virtual teams enabled by collaboration technologies.

Open question: Remote working has been proven to be effective for most office workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Will this slow or even reverse the trend towards urbanisation, particularly in the developed world?

Generational waves

By 2019, Generation Z will outnumber millennials, and for the first time in modern history, 5 generations will work side by side.

Demographic cohorts:

• Gen Z: those born from 1997 onward. 1/3rd of the global population and 1/5th of the working population.
• Gen Y or Millenials or Echo Boomers: those born between the mid-80s and the early 2000s.
• Gen X: those born from the early to mid-1960s to the early 1980s.
• Baby Boomers: those born between the mid-1940s and the early to mid-1960s
• The Silent Generation or G.I. Generation (US): those born between the mid-1920s and the early-mid 1940s.

Intergenerational fairness is becoming an increasing concern. For example, tensions are emerging in the UK between boomers who believe they saved for their state pensions, and younger workers who are no longer happy to keeping paying them at such high and increasing rates. See, for example, this exchange: https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1777369475450384794 

Online

In 2019, for the first time, globally, people will spend more hours a day on the Internet than watching TV, consuming more content than ever before in history.

Increased nationalism

As evidenced by Brexit, Trump, and the Scottish and Catalan independence movements.

This will:

• make immigration harder,
• exacerbate the refugee crisis, and
• exacerbate the impact of ageing populations on developed nations.

This will extend to the digital sphere:

• China is developing a shadow internet, and
• some non-European firms are choosing to block European web visitors rather than comply with GDPR regulations.

Big Tech regulation

Concerns about data privacy will:

• lead to increase regulation, such as the GDPR
• cause some people to close their accounts, but more to use ad blockers and opt out of cookies.

Big Tech taxation

Local and national authorities are looking for more effective ways to tax big tech firms who redirect profits to lower tax jurisdictions:

• The UK: planning a digital tax of 2% on tech companies
• The EU: tax reform has petered out.
• The US:
• Seattle: head tax
• San Francisco: Proposition C
• India, South Korea, Mexico and Chile are all working on the same idea.

Big Tech antitrust

The US has traditionally shied away from this fearing it could stifle innovation, but Europe has a freer hand and fewer local tech giants.

Increasing wealth and consumption, and reducing extreme poverty

Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty. The global poverty rate is at its lowest level in recorded history.

In 1970, 48% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty. By 2020, that was down to 9.4%. (Source)

Economic and cyber cold warfare

Global economies may be too integrated for full trade or cyberwarfare. But, escalating tension between the US and China may lead to a cold war.

Data driven life-hacking

We will increasingly turn to data to 'hack' our lives.

This will initially focus on:

1. Health care: Patients will have access to their own data and medical professionals will have better access to more of it.
2. Personal finances: It will have a similar effect on personal finance, with improved transparency and individual control co-evolving with better support from professionals.

Organisations will churn and fragment

The average age of a company listed on the S&P 500 Index has fallen from almost 60 years old in the 1950s to less than 20 years currently. Only 60 companies on the Fortune 500 list in 1955 appear on the list in 2017- fewer than 12%. The rest have either gone bankrupt, disappeared after M&A, or they still exist but have tumbled out of the top rankings. (Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation)

The gig economy will move up the value chain. Inter-company collaboration will increase. This will fragment big corporates into smaller autonomous and collaborative ecosystems.

Clean energy

Old technology, like the internal combustion engine, will get smarter before it goes away. For example:

• an anti-smog device installed on the engine for a few hundred bucks that reduces fuel consumption by 20% and particles by 80%.
• built-in AI in your car can help you drive greener and cut another 20% off the bill.
• today, half the energy we use is wasted because we have inefficient systems.

And it is not just technology. Insects have more protein than any other meat. They are lauded as an environment-friendly way to feed a growing population. Already, over 2 billion people worldwide consume insects on a regular basis for a source of protein.

From learning to doing

As the world continues to change their will be a premium on life-long learning. But we will learn that learning from books is no substitute for learning by doing. Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/50-big-ideas-2019-what-watch-year-ahead-isabelle-roughol/?trk=eml-mktg-big-ideas-2019  

Generative AI presents a unique opportunity to combine individualised learning reminiscent of the OxBridge Tutor-based systems with the scalable learning from MOOCs.

Diversity

In 1972 the was only 1 female CEO in Fortune 500 companies. By 2020 there were 41. (Source)

Institutions, including employers, will learn to embrace diversity: of ability, gender diversity, neurodiversity, etc.

Inclusive design - designing products and services for people with different needs from the outset, rather than adapting products and services after the fact - will become more commonplace.

Movements like #metoo will ruthlessly seek out and expose any remaining dark corners.

Pandemic Risk

COVID-19 came as a shock to many. However, the fragility of the global health system has been well understood by experts for many years.

No less than Bill Gates talks very coherently about the dangers of epidemics in this 2015 Ted Talk.

At the time of writing COVID-19 remains a live pandemic. The figure of 4.7k death shown on this chart is already well out of date. For the latest facts and figures about COVID-19, see:

• Our World in Data - Coronavirus
• Worldometer - Coronavirus

See also:

• Tactical versus strategic responses to coronavirus

Globalisation

Globalization refers to the ongoing process of increasing interconnectedness and interdependence among countries, economies, societies, and cultures worldwide. It is driven by advances in technology, communication, transportation, and the liberalization of trade and investment. Globalization facilitates the flow of goods, services, capital, ideas, and people across borders, leading to the integration of national economies into a single global market. It has profound effects on various aspects of life, including economics, politics, culture, and the environment, shaping the way nations interact and transforming the world into a more interconnected and interrelated global community.

McKinsey & Co ask Is globalization over?

Flexible/Remote/hybrid working

1. Pre-pandemic 5% of total workdays were being done remotely, but today it's 30% and this number will continue to increase incrementally going forward (Nick Bloom, Stanford University).
2. 80% of employees would choose a job with flexible work options over a job that only offers traditional office hours and locations (Owl Labs).
3. 77% of remote workers say they’re more productive when working from home (CoSo Cloud, LLC).
4. Companies moving to fully #remote are saving 30-50% on their fixed expenses while simultaneously saving commuters 60 minutes per day, resulting in a 2.5% increase in output, per employee, per week (Nick Bloom, Standford University).
5. The global market for remote work tools is expected to reach $4.07 billion by the end of 2023. (Statista)

The movement towards flexible working has been growing for some time. For example, in the UK in 2018, of the employed population:

• 7.2% reported working mainly from home.
• 30% reported having worked from home sometimes.

• technically feasible,
• culturally acceptable.

• Twitter:

  Elon Musk has told Twitter staff that remote working will end and "difficult times" lie ahead, according to reports.

  Source: Musk tells Twitter staff remote working will end - BBC News

• Citi Bank:

  Citi is hiring 30 would-be bankers from around Europe for a “junior banking analytics group”. They will be paid about half the $100,000 starting salary received by the 100 first-year analysts it hires annually in New York, Frankfurt or London. On the other hand, the Malaga team will not be expected to work long evening hours or sacrifice weekends. (Source: Sun, sea or salary: Citi recruits’ future of work trade-off | Financial Times)

Big(ger) state

Governments have used things like COVID-19 to increase their role in ordinary civilians lives.

Augmented and Virtual Reality

Quantum Computing

Precision Fermentation

Growing proteins in vats instead of factory farms. See The Future of Food - The New York Times.

Dependence on computer chips

"Manufacturing computer chips has become a mind-bogglingly complicated process that has pushed the world’s most talented engineers to the edge of their capabilities; it is now so difficult to make further advances in the technology that very few firms have the knowledge and the resources to be able compete (sic) in the market. Second, with an annual output of around US$600 billion, production is extremely concentrated for a major global industry. Incredibly, most of the world’s semiconductors are produced on the small island of Taiwan. This puts the industry in a very delicate balance. The ubiquity of these chips in modern life—you’re using billions of transistors while reading this article on your phone or computer—means that the health of the global economy rests on the maintenance of that balance." 

Source: A new look at the microchip’s midlife crisis published 11/10/2022

Growing 'space' sector

The space sector is worth nearly half a trillion dollars and is growing at about 9% annually. It is at an inflection point similar to what commercial air travel experienced after World War II and the internet saw in the 1990s. Source: Space economy: The missing element in your strategy | McKinsey