There is a growing argument in sports that many games have already been "solved"—that is, the optimal strategies have been discovered, leaving little room for innovation. But could the same be true for business strategy? Have we already uncovered the best ways to compete, grow, and win in the market? Or, as history suggests, is there always room for disruption?
The Concept of a "Solved" Sport
When people claim that a sport is "solved," they mean that data, analytics, and experience have led to near-optimal strategies that maximise efficiency and performance. This phenomenon is evident in several major sports:
- Chess and Go: Artificial intelligence has completely "solved" these games by determining the best possible moves in any given situation. Humans now struggle to compete against AI-driven strategies.
- Basketball: The rise of three-point shooting is a direct result of statistical analysis showing its higher efficiency over mid-range shots. Teams that ignore this data find themselves at a disadvantage.
- Football (Soccer): The use of Expected Goals (xG), gegenpressing, and positional play has refined team strategies, reducing randomness and making play more predictable.
- Baseball: Moneyball-style analytics have led to shifts in recruitment, player positioning, and in-game decision-making, maximising statistical advantages.
- American Football: Fourth-down decision-making has improved based on analytics, changing traditional coaching instincts.
In these cases, strategy has become more about execution than creativity. But does this mean innovation is dead? Not necessarily. Rule changes, new playstyles, and unforeseen tactical shifts continue to shake things up.
How This Applies to Business Strategy
Business, like sports, has seen a wave of optimisation through data, automation, and analytics. Many industries now operate under well-established best practices that maximise efficiency. Consider the following:
- Amazon’s logistics and supply chain model has set the gold standard for e-commerce.
- Google’s search and ad algorithms are so optimised that competing on their terms is nearly impossible.
- McDonald's franchise model is a finely tuned system that ensures consistent quality and profitability worldwide.
- High-frequency trading firms use algorithms to exploit millisecond-level price movements, just as teams in sports optimise every aspect of play.
Just as in sports, companies that fail to adopt data-driven decision-making struggle to compete. But does this mean business strategy is solved? Not quite.
The Risks of Assuming Strategy is "Solved"
Throughout history, people have mistakenly believed that progress had reached its peak. A famous (though likely apocryphal) quote is attributed to Charles H. Duell, the U.S. Patent Office Commissioner in 1899, stating, "Everything that can be invented has been invented." While he probably never said this, the myth persists because it reflects a common human tendency to assume we've reached the limits of innovation.
Similarly, in 1900, Lord Kelvin, a leading physicist of his time, reportedly stated, "There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement." Yet, just a few years later, Einstein’s Theory of Relativity and quantum mechanics completely rewrote our understanding of the universe.
The same applies to business. Every time an industry seems optimised, a new player disrupts it:
- Netflix disrupted the entertainment industry by replacing physical rentals with streaming.
- Tesla upended the auto industry by proving that electric vehicles could be mainstream.
- Airbnb challenged the hotel industry without owning a single property.
Differentiation in a "Solved" World
Even in industries that seem to have settled into best practices, businesses can still gain an edge through differentiation and strategic rule-breaking. When an environment becomes too optimised, the real winners are those who:
- Change the Rules – Just as sports leagues introduce new rules to shake up play, businesses can redefine how markets operate.
- Find Unexploited Niches – While large competitors optimise for mass appeal, smaller firms can dominate underserved segments.
- Innovate in Experience, Not Just Efficiency – Apple’s success isn’t just about better hardware but also about brand experience and ecosystem integration.
- Use Emerging Technologies – AI, blockchain, and new computing paradigms will continue to create new strategic possibilities.
- Think in Game Theory Terms – Just as sports teams find optimal strategies based on their opponents, businesses must anticipate market moves and counter them effectively.
The Future of Strategy: Solved or Evolving?
The belief that business strategy is "solved" mirrors past misconceptions in science and sports. While industries do become highly optimised, true leaders don’t just play the game better—they change the game entirely. Just like in sports, strategy isn’t about finding a static formula; it’s about staying ahead of the next shift.
If you want to keep your business strategy evolving, join the movement at StratNavApp.com or book a call to explore new opportunities. The game is never truly over—are you ready to play smarter?